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J???鯧?縉?*l???49??b?[0?鑨?穥?M???錯?hy?{???Q~?&?咾?vb?q???'*?`7??bC?GS?阤?倁?鹷??? ?焄???)?F?誈?耾?釩?糋?6S?渉?}w???a@?Q{????颕?`R?Yt?????????bD?s????薗?????2?i2???He?1G?錭???t?匛?)(?????:p?$E?1F?xX?鑐???漗?u^?梐?泎???????1J???\I??????xI?6R?筰?1!??pX???T???qr?鹶???1%?S6?顳?gM?楾?[e?榟?緕?????*T???~.?瓹?裷???Wm?頛?甌?廧?碻?憏???觔???????[???DE?飆?????g??f~?竂??}?慽??????Y~???h1?鵄?N?,k?j~????????z??歡?╨???9?@?B[?????nW?0Z?r{???奪?Ir???????IQ??? ??H?L?檚??u?n=?#\?阛???????鏗? 4?TV?????4-?*7?篜?蘪?!? ??? M?????/\???L???>"??sc?倆??豎a緕H|欹?!` ???AWN21.4  3>?>??k 3???%%%%?$P^?&??%V\'L???>45?(6|?唯?p?*?%%P/???%%騍%%???毇0??^1l??抹 矮騍?櫌??6?,?F?矮0c??铳"%喃x?( ??VF<扠`p???????????????????   Contents Page  TOC \o "1-1" \h \z \u  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436060" Executive Summary  PAGEREF _Toc207436060 \h 3  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436061" 1. Introduction  PAGEREF _Toc207436061 \h 4  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436062" 2. Approach and Methods  PAGEREF _Toc207436062 \h 5  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436063" 4. Description of MLA RD&E Investments  PAGEREF _Toc207436063 \h 8  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436064" 5. Principal Outputs and Outcomes  PAGEREF _Toc207436064 \h 11  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436065" 6. Description of Industry Changes  PAGEREF _Toc207436065 \h 18  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436066" 7. Description of Key Drivers of Change  PAGEREF _Toc207436066 \h 29  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436067" 8. Assumptions for Valuing Benefits  PAGEREF _Toc207436067 \h 32  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436068" 9. Investment Criteria Results  PAGEREF _Toc207436068 \h 35  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436069" 10. Investment Analysis Case Studies  PAGEREF _Toc207436069 \h 38  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436070" 11. Conclusions  PAGEREF _Toc207436070 \h 39  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436071" Acknowledgements  PAGEREF _Toc207436071 \h 40  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436072" References  PAGEREF _Toc207436072 \h 40  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436073" Appendix 1: Supporting Economic Evaluation Case Studies  PAGEREF _Toc207436073 \h 43  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436074" Appendix 2: Example of a Northern Beef PIRD Project  PAGEREF _Toc207436074 \h 51  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc207436075" Appendix 3: Glossary of Economic Terms  PAGEREF _Toc207436075 \h 52  Executive Summary This analysis estimates the return on investment in northern beef research and development by Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) over the period 2000/01 to 2007/08. The annual expenditure by MLA, State agencies and others on RD&E for the northern beef industry has been assembled with the assistance of personnel in MLA and the State agencies. The total cost of RD&E investment in the northern beef industry over this period, including that of MLA, was of the order of $346 million in 2007/08 dollar terms, or about $43 m per annum. The investment costs assembled have been confined to those activities focusing on the production side of beef production including extension costs. The benefits that have been driven by this investment include: 1. Lowered cost of production of northern beef from both new and existing technology 2. Increased numbers of producers exploiting the lowered cost of production 3. Increased proportion of beef produced meeting market specifications 4. Higher level of profitability of northern beef production  The economic analysis has used a top down approach to value the benefits in relation to what would have occurred without the investment in RD&E. An economic surplus approach has then been used to value the added benefits due to the investment. The top down approach has been supported by summaries of individual case studies that are provided in an Appendix. The various forms and activities of investment across genetics, animal management, the feedbase, and the encouragement of adoption and adaptation of best practice have been described. The outputs from the various activities and programs have been itemised and evidence of the uptake and impact of such outputs have been reported as outcomes. The assumptions made in the analysis are supported by some statistical data on changes in the industry over the 8 year period, such as genetic gain and a series of total factor productivity estimates based on annual farm survey data. A key assumption in the cost-benefit analysis is that the productivity gains would have been significantly less had the investment not been made. The investment criteria for the total investment made in production RD&E are quite positive, demonstrating that the investment has been successful in economic terms. The net present value for the total investment is estimated at $1,311 million (5% discount rate, 2007/08$ terms, discounted to 2007/08, 20 year benefit horizon). The benefit cost ratio is estimated at 4.2 to 1, and the internal rate of return is estimated at over 27% per annum. As the MLA investment has been about 11% of the total RD&E investment, the MLA investment has been reported as providing a net present value of $148 million and a similar benefit cost ratio and internal rate of return as reported above for total investment. 1. Introduction MLA has been investing in research and development geared to the Australian northern beef industry since its formation in 1999. MLA predecessors (AMLRDC and MRC) had been investing in this area since at least 1990. Other Australian research and development agencies, particularly the CSIRO and the State Agencies (Departments of Primary Industries in Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australia), have been investing also over this period, often in conjunction with MLA or its predecessors. A large part of the investment by all parties since July 2000 has been orientated towards grazing management, nutrition and reproduction, diseases and parasites, meeting market specifications, whole farm management and encouragement of adoption of best practices though group learning and training initiatives. Other critical investments by MLA during this period were related to enhancing demand, both in Australian and in overseas markets. These demand enhancing investments are not included in the current analysis which is restricted to research, development and extension (RD&E) geared towards beef production. The performance of the Australian northern beef industry since 2000/01 has been positive, with some increase in cattle numbers, cattle slaughtered and total factor productivity. Productivity changes (e.g. from improved animal genetics, and improved pasture and animal management) have made significant contributions. These changes have been reliant on not only the production and use of new technology, but also the increased uptake of existing technology. Other major drivers of change include the increasing role that live cattle exports have played in the northern beef industry, and the lower profitability from merino sheep (particularly relevant to Western Queensland). This report focuses on the production side of the RD&E investment and estimates the economic returns that have been generated from investment over the period 2000/01 to 2007/08. The analysis required assembling information on the RD&E investment made by MLA over this period but recognises that RD&E investment other than that by MLA was made also. Further, some of the changes that have occurred may have been driven by factors other than RD&E investment. A significant challenge has been identifying and valuing the improvements. Not only are there time lags between when the investments were made and changes observed, but also issues of unravelling causal factors involved in the changes and what would have happened to performance of the industry if the RD&E investment had not been made. 2. Approach and Methods Approach The general approach to this economic evaluation is an aggregate top down approach supported by a number of case studies of specific northern beef RD&E investment over the period. The top down approach follows the general process used by CIE (2001), Griffiths (2005), and Vere et al (2005). This approach assumes two different productivity growth scenarios that are assumed would have occurred  with and  without the research investment under analysis. The differences in the value of benefits for the  with and  without research investments are valued and their timing over varying periods from the year of last investment specified. This benefit stream is then matched with the RD&E investment by MLA and others over the period 2000/2001 to 2007/2008. The case studies draw on past economic analyses reports on relevant northern beef RD&E investments. These analyses were carried out in 2006/07. They are analyses of specific projects or programs and their MLA investment costs are already included in the top down aggregate approach. However, these more specific investment analyses provide more detail on the benefits derived and support the assumptions made and results achieved in the top down approach. Abbreviated versions of the case studies appear in Appendix 1. Methods A number of steps were involved in pursuing the top down approach. These included: Identification and assembly of RD&E investment by MLA and others Description of investments Description of key outputs and outcomes from the investments Description of industry changes and key drivers of change Development of the  with and  without scenarios and the assumptions for valuing benefits Calculations of the investment criteria Assembly of supporting past economic evaluation case studies The next sections of this report generally follow the list above. The method used in estimating the benefits from the investment was an economic surplus approach (Edwards and Freebairn, 1981). This approach is well described in the agricultural economics literature including several sets of application guidelines driven by the interest in research evaluation of the Rural Research and Development Corporations including GRDC (1992), GRDC (1993), and CIE (1997). 3. Investment Costs 3.1 MLA Investment Personnel from MLA assembled the Livestock Production & Innovation (LPI) annual funding of RD&E for the northern beef industry. The objective was to identify the annual expenditure by MLA on northern beef RD&E for the financial years ending June 2001 to June 2008. Table 3.1 provides these estimates. For the past five years the MLA investment was estimated by subtracting 50% of resources invested in the northern beef environmental and natural resources area, and adding half the total beef strategic science budget. These adjustments were to more accurately assess the resources invested in production RD&E. Table 3.1: Resources Invested by Year for MLA in Northern Beef Production RD&E (nominal $) Year ending June MLA Investment ($ m nominal terms) 20013.5020023.2520033.8920044.4820054.1120064.6420076.0020085.51Total35.38 Source: Annual Budgets for the Northern Beef Program, MLA 3.2 Other Investment Apart from MLA, investments in northern beef production RD&E have been made by other research and extension agencies, predominantly the State Departments of Primary Industries (DPIs), as well as the CSIRO, and a number of Universities and CRCs. Table 3.2 reports the estimates for expenditure by the State agencies over the eight year period. Table 3.2: Estimates of Resources Invested by State Agencies in Northern Beef Production RD&E Year ending June State DPI Investment ($ m nominal terms) (a) 200119.53200220.08200320.59200421.10200521.64200622.50200723.30200824.09Total 172.83 (a) estimated as salaries plus 25% salaries on costs; total then multiplied by 1.5 to account for overheads Source: Estimates by DPIs in QLD, NT and WA (Northern) In addition it is estimated that CSIRO, CRCs and the Universities invested about 60% of that expended by the States in each year. Table 3.3 summarise the three sources of funding for northern beef RD&E over the period. Table 3.3: Summary of Funding Estimated for Total Northern Beef Investment in RD&E (nominal $ m) YearMLA Investment State DPI Investment OthersTOTAL2000/013.5019.5311.7234.752001/023.2520.0812.0535.382002/033.8920.5912.3536.832003/044.4821.1012.6638.242004/054.1121.6412.9838.732005/064.6422.5013.5040.642006/076.0023.3013.9843.292007/085.5124.0914.4544.06Total35.38172.83103.70311.92 The MLA contribution to northern beef RD&E is estimated at 11%. It could well be argued that if MLA had reduced their funding for northern beef RD&E, that some of the other investment would not have been made. Hence the leverage exerted by MLA has probably drawn in new investment that otherwise would not have been made in MLA s absence. The approach taken in the current analysis is that the  with and  without assumptions reflect the benefits attributed to all RD&E investment, compared with no investment. MLA is then attributed a portion of the benefits based on the estimate of their relative resource contribution. It is feasible that MLA could be attributed more than 11% of these benefits on the grounds that some of the RD&E investment made by non-MLA parties would not have gone ahead without MLA. Contributions to outcomes by other groups including Breed Societies, producer innovations and the private sector are generally embedded in the  without or counterfactual scenario and therefore are not included explicitly in the investment cost side of the analysis. Any additional costs to producers as a result of the RD&E investment are considered to be taken account in the net productivity gains assumed. 4. Description of MLA RD&E Investments This section provides a brief overview of relevant MLA northern beef RD&E investment over the period. The following sub-sections are divided into investments in the areas of: Genetics Reproduction Nutrition and management Adoption Other GENETICS Beef Genetics and Breedplan MLA has invested continuously in beef genetics research and genetic evaluation systems. Much of the investment concerned with improving genetic evaluation has occurred through the Animal Genetic and Breeding Unit (AGBU) located at the University of New England. BREEDPLAN and BreedObject constitute Australia s principal genetic evaluation system for beef cattle. BREEDPLAN assembles economic breeding values for a series of traits while BreedObject combines the individual BREEDPLAN traits into an economic $ index. The information captured provides reliable feedback on the genetic merit of Australian breeding herds. The MLA northern program supports also the Tropical Beef Technology Services whose personnel conduct workshops on BREEDPLAN and promote outcomes of the Beef CRC. REPRODUCTON Bullpower This was a long standing MLA and QDPI&F investment associated with the reproductive efficiency of bulls, particularly a method of assessing bull fertility as a selection aid. Prior to these studies it was known that the calf output of individual bulls in multiple-sire herds was extremely variable NUTRITION AND MANAGEMENT Pasture Improvement Continued adoption of stylos and leucaena was manifest in the 2001-2008 period. MLA produced the Leucaena Management Handbook and further support was given to the leucaena network of producers. There were also projects funded in the area of psyllid resistance and the weed threat of leucaena was also addressed. Wet and Dry Season Supplementation It is now best practice for producers to feed supplements (licks) in both the wet (e.g. phosphorus) and dry seasons (e.g. urea) in the northern beef industry. Further investment in encouraging adoption of such supplementation has occurred over the period predominantly through EDGEnetwork? (nutrition and breeding courses) as well as more recently via Beef Up forums. Early Weaning Early weaning is considered best practice in the northern beef industry. Such management reduces cow mortality and increases reproductive performance due to improved body weight and earlier cycling of cows. Increased adoption has been encouraged through EDGEnetwork?. Wet Season Spelling Much of the benefit from wet season spelling came from an investment (ECOGRAZE) that developed grazing management guidelines for open eucalypt woodlands in northern Australia. It was a $2.5 m long-term study (1992/93 to 2000/01) located on five commercial grazing properties on different land types in north-east Queensland. The findings from this study have been promoted extensively through EDGEnetwork? (GLM) and other forums after 2001. More current studies from experiments at Wambiana have added further outputs. Faecal NIRS This MLA funded initiative pioneered new technology that analyses animal faeces using Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (NIRS) which provides a low cost method of ascertaining nutrient deficiencies and taking appropriate action for management and supplementation. Burning Strategies Work on burning strategies has been continued including a producer demonstration site of the impact of burning strategies on woody weed control. ADOPTION Beef Up Forums 'Beef Up forums commenced in the northern beef industry in 2007. They are one day forums held at various producer locations in northern Australia each year and aimed at increasing profitability of producers. Discussions focus on the key profit drivers of beef businesses,?including reproductive performance, liveweight gains and grazing land management. EDGEnetwork? EDGEnetwork? has been one of several methods of extension employed by MLA as part of its RD&E program since 2000. EDGEnetwork? is a series of structured learning workshops delivered to meat and livestock producers in all states of Australia through various arrangements with state and private sector agencies. EDGEnetwork? provides a vehicle for communicating the outcomes of its past R&D investment to meat and livestock producers so that they can improve their profitability and sustainability. EDGEnetwork? was initially set up to communicate R&D findings and increase general capacity in farm business. With support from MLA, QDPI&F developed principles and practices for grazing land management (GLM) in northern Australia through the identification, evaluation, and synthesis of available information. This information was refined and adapted to accommodate the assessment of options for improving grazing land management on individual properties. The package produced was based on a learning outcomes approach, recognised prior learning, stressed continuous learning and provided the opportunity for the course to be accredited. The GLM course is delivered through EDGEnetwork?. BeefPlan BeefPlan is one of several MLA initiatives designed to assist northern beef producers by improving their capacity to access, absorb and apply knowledge relevant to efficient beef production. Distinguishing features of BeefPlan include its reliance on group dynamics to bring about useful outcomes. This has been achieved in practice where group-generated strengths are systematically linked to the prerequisites of practice change such as identification of the need to change and information gathering and assessment. The program was initiated in 1998/99 and is continuing. PIRDS The MLA PIRD program commenced in 1993 and has continued to 2007. The objective was to support new ideas from cattle and sheepmeat producer groups to improve their knowledge, awareness and profitability through group initiated research activities. PIRDs represented therefore a way for producers to explore solutions to local farm management issues and to practically assess applicability of research to commercial enterprises. A range of issues have been addressed by these groups from grazing to marketing. Pasture, feed and grazing questions along with animal production, farm management and breeding were constant issue areas over the period from 2001 to 2007. Frontier Magazine Frontier Magazine commenced publication in May 2006 after interest was expressed by northern beef producers for a similar type of magazine to Prograzier in the south. The role of Frontier is to help raise producer awareness of, and interest, in key R&D outcomes, to encourage producers to seek further information/training, and to influence their management practices. OTHER Beef CRC II and III The northern beef program of MLA has been a key partner in all three Beef CRCs. CRCII (CRC for Cattle and Beef Quality) (1997 - 2004) and CRCIII (CRC for Beef Genetic Technologies) (2005 - 2012) were active during the investment period of this evaluation. The role of the Beef CRC has increasingly broadened over time from an initial focus on eating quality (CRCI) to the inclusion of other economically important traits (CRCII) and then to use emerging gene technology to address an even broader range of beef industry priority issues but still including beef quality (CRCIII). The nine core partners for CRCIII include MLA, four State DPIs, three universities and Meat and Wool New Zealand. 5. Principal Outputs and Outcomes Some indicative examples of outputs and outcomes produced by the MLA investments over the period are summarised in Table 5.1. Project or Program OutputsOutcomesGENETICSBeef Genetics and BREEDPLAN The investment has enhanced the versions of BREEDPLAN and BreedObject being used by AGBU. There are currently 2,300 Australian herds enrolled in BREEDPLAN. During calendar 2007, BREEDPLAN processed weaning weights for 125,630 animals (Steven Skinnner, pers.comm.,2008). Higher proportion of seedstock producers being involved in BREEDPLAN and more commercial producers purchasing bulls selected using BREEDPLAN Growth rates of animals have increased and age of turnoff at the same weight have been reduced. The proportion of northern beef producers using EBVs or breeding indices in sire selection and purchase is 37% (Hooper et al, 2007). Some 20% of bulls entering the market in the north have come from herds using BREEDPLAN and have EBVs on them. However, 80% of bulls bred and used in northern Australia have either a sire or grand-sire that was bred in a herd using BREEDPLAN (Robert Banks, pers. comm., 2008) The average genetic gain across the year for Australian breeds for cattle that were born in the 5 year period from 2002 to 2006 were (Steven Skinnner, pers.comm., 2008) Maximum value+$3.80 per year Minimum value +$0.30 per year The larger breeds made over $2.00 average gain per year The average rate of gain across breeds is about $1.75 extra gross margin per cow joined per year (Robert Banks, pers. comm., 2008). REPRODUCTION BullpowerSingle-sire studies showed that pregnancy rates were reduced when bulls with less than 50% normal sperm were used, particularly under high mating loads. Herd dispersion studies showed that pregnancy rates were not reduced as a direct result of reducing bull percentages from high to moderate under high dispersion grazing management in north Australia, or from moderate to low under low or moderate herd dispersion. Bulls can be relocated without any adverse effects on reproductive traits. Sperm morphology at 14 months is no indication of its morphological status as a 2-year-old. As sperm morphology is a more important pre-mating indicator of mating outcome in multiple-sire herds than physical traits, caution should be exercised in culling bulls as yearlings based on sperm morphological assessment. A key finding was the importance of sperm morphology as part of a thorough breeding soundness examination of a bull. This has provided veterinarians and producers with confidence in the relative contributions of various bull reproductive traits to calf output. The data provided further support to the recommendation that using mating percentages of 2.5% of reproductively-sound bulls is adequate under most north Australian cattle management conditions. NUTRITION AND MANAGEMENT Pasture Improvement Stylos and leucaena promoted through EDGEnetwork? and Beef Up. Leucaena Guide produced on establishment and management. Significant progress made in a psyllid resistant hybrid leucaena. Improved effectiveness of establishment and management leading to higher weight gains and filling gaps in drought periods. Faecal NIRSTwelve QDPI&F staff were trained as NIRS coordinators throughout the State. They were provided with technical training on the development of NIRS technology and how it has been adapted to tropical pastures. A field data collection sheet was developed for completion by producers when submitting a sample. Two NIRS Fact Sheets were prepared and circulated to producer cooperators, the QDPI&F Call Centre, beef extension officers within QDPI&F, to producers outside the project and to QDPI&F presenters and participants of the MLA Nutrition EDGE package. Over 150 producer cooperators across Queensland were involved in the establishment of sites within different land types in order to develop initial NIRS, cattle condition and pasture condition relationships. A database was developed to store the NIRS results as well as the data being collected and submitted on the field collection data sheet. Surveys showed that 88% of private enterprises and 94% of company enterprises believed the NIRS technology was useful for predicting diet quality in their district Respondents have used the results and interpretation of NIRS in the following management decisions (117 respondents to question): Better understanding of pastures (81%) Commencing supplementary feeding (71%) Selecting supplements (62%) Continuing a supplementation program (60%) Drought management strategies (56%) Moving stock between paddocks (41%) Selling livestock (16%) Respondents were asked to rate how useful are the results provided to them. The proportion of respondents (117 respondents) indicating they found the results useful or very useful are as follows: Crude protein (77%) Digestibility (74%) Non-grass component (69%) Faecal N (51%) Liveweight gain (47%) 85% of respondents felt that the NIRS results adequately reflected what was occurring in the paddock. Regarding willingness to pay, 7% indicated they were willing to pay less than $10; 40% indicated they would be willing to pay between $11 and $20; 36% indicated a price of between $21 and $30, while 13% indicated a price between $31 and $50. Respondents indicated that in the future they would use the technology for the following management practices: Commencing supplementary feeding (91%) Better understanding of pasture (91%) Selecting appropriate supplements (79%) Drought management strategies (78%) Modifying a supplement program (78%) Stock performance aid (78%) Weaner management decisions (58%) Moving stock between paddocks (57%) Breeder management decisions (56%) At the end of each wet season (50%) Selling livestock (34%) Purchase of new property (28%) In February 2006 MLA and CSIRO (the IP owners) licensed the faecal NIRS technology to Symbio Alliance Pty Ltd, a Brisbane based company. The license conditions provide that MLA and CSIRO retain the rights to use the IP for research purposes. The Symbio Alliance service includes interpretation of NIRS results, with the cost of testing and implementation set at a maximum of $45 per individual test. Wet and Dry Season Supplements Greater awareness and knowledge of supplementation technology due to MLA investment Important components of EDGE courses and Beef Up. Higher level of adoption of effective and efficient supplementation. Improved nutritional management with increased reproductive performance, increased weight gains, and earlier turnoff ages. Wet Season Spelling The original long-term grazing trials have demonstrated sustainable grazing management options that will optimise beneficial grasses for beef production while minimising soil and nutrient loss. The ECOGRAZE principles have been well developed and have gained considerable credibility in the industry, partly due to the work being undertaken on commercial properties and the messages being well documented, explained and promoted through various training programs. The close cooperation between state agencies and CSIRO in the development of the grazing management guidelines and their promotion has contributed to the impact now being experienced. The economic advantages of using the guidelines produced by ECOGRAZE are the prevention of land in good condition from converting to a deteriorated situation and can in fact assist deteriorated land to recover to good condition. There is a small annual average cash return advantage to farms that use the principles in either of these two ways. There are also benefits to producers who use the principles to prevent their land from becoming irreversibly degraded and which is then unprofitable. ADOPTION Beef Up Range of Workshops held across Queensland in 2007 and 2008. In 2007, 13 beef forums were run, with producer participation numbering 720. Of forum participants in 2007, 46% surveyed stated they had changed management practices as a result of the forum attended (Axiom Research, 2007). Over 60% of participants indicated they would attend further training while over 50% indicated that they would make changes from what they had heard.  EDGEnetwork? The Grazing Land Management education package produced from the QDPI&F and customised for different regions of northern Australia consisted of A technical manual Workbooks and other materials PowerPoint presentation Deliverer notes Records show that 10,970 participants attended EDGEnetwork? courses in the six years to June 2006. Courses delivered by EDGEnetwork? since 2000 that have been popular with northern beef producers include: Nutrition EDGE (1,086 attendees) Grazing Land Management (781 attendees) Breeding EDGE (Michael Goldberg, pers. comm., 2008). Enhanced productivity of meat and livestock production through improved management decision making leading to increased net farm income of producers. Hassall and Associates (2004) undertook a review of EDGEnetwork? with a focus on the impact and management arrangements. The review concluded that there had been a greater uptake of R&D findings due to EDGEnetwork? workshops, particularly regarding improvements in pastures, stocking rates and selection of breeding stock. These improvements had been translated into increases in farm cash income. Producers consulted in the review indicated a 4% to 5.5% increase in productivity in the short term, with productivity increases up to 12% in the long term. Fifty-eight participants attended the GLM Workshops in 2003/04, the first year of it being offered under EDGEnetwork?. Numbers increased to 175 in 2005/06. Surveys report changes in management practices of northern beef producers as a result of attending the GLM course (73%) (Solutions Marketing and Research, 2004) or from attending MLA courses in general (65%) (Axiom Research, 2005). BeefPlan Examples of outputs included the following: Face to face and teleconference meetings QDPI&F presentation about benchmarking Bull selection days EDGE nutrition, breeding and marketing and workshops MLA Meat Profit day Cattle and Catchments workshop (RCS) Grazing for Profit School (RCS). Benchmarking via RCS and Profit Probe. CattleCare accreditation One group organised a dog handling school Some grouping together for bulk buying (e.g. fencing and watering materials) Supergene fertility and tenderness school Many attended NLIS workshops Pregnancy Testing School Financial Planning workshops Establishment of sites for regular pasture /ground cover monitoring Strategically aimed feeding in drought periods Changes to practicing early selling and early weaning during drought Organisation of field days for their region Incorporated business/financial plans into property plans Most enterprises in one group are using NIRS dung sampling to assist with paddock rotation and lick/supplement composition Examples of outcomes included the following: Changed management practices as a result of group participation Working together on some activities saved costs to individuals Benchmarking activities resulted in more efficient record keeping and set the scene for monitoring changes and measuring improvements All enterprises in one group were practicing low stress stockhandling Most enterprise in one group now have off-farm investments as a result of attending financial planning workshops Work done on individual properties as a result of Envirofund and other grants resulting in more fencing to land type including fencing off degraded land, fencing off ephemeral waterholes, and fencing off areas of wildlife or indigenous interest PIRDS An estimated 20,000 producers connected to groups have had close or some contact with the meat PIRD scheme. Of these around 5,000 catlle and sheep producers would have been active or close to participants in the PIRDs (Welsman, 2001). There are indications that 50% to 100% of PIRD participants have made and will make significant changes as a result of their involvement. A study in 1998 calculated return on investment of ten completed PIRDs with a total net present value of $11 million, which would have returned MLA s investment many times for all PIRDs up to that time. Frontier Magazine Current circulation in early 2008 was about 9,400. A survey in 2007 (Taverner Research, 2007) reported that most readers rated the magazine as good or excellent. The majority of readers (86%) felt that the magazine was useful or very useful. Articles on pasture management and breeding /weaning practices were mentioned in particular. Just under half of Frontier readers had implemented a key action after reading Frontier; most commonly mentioned were seeking more information on land management and nutrition, changes to grazing management, early weaning and cattle management (Taverner Research, 2007). OTHERBeef CRCII and IIICRC II produced a range of products and packages, for example DNA markers; vaccines for bovine respiratory disease, BREEDPLAN enhancements for feed efficiency and carcase and beef quality; enhancements to retail beef yield; marbling and feed efficiency as stand alone traits CRCIII prospectively will produce outputs similar to CRC II but with an increased emphasis on adoption and integration across the industry. CRC II outputs have potentially increased the productivity of beef production systems through an increased rate of genetic gain, as well as product enhancement to better meet market demand and consumer requirements. CRCIII should increase the availability and rate of adoption of genetic technologies as well as a range of other technological improvements.  6. Description of Industry Changes 6.1 Introduction Some statistical data on changes relevant to the northern beef industry observed over the period included: Cattle numbers in the northern region Cattle slaughtered in the northern region Australian beef production Branding and turnoff rates in the northern region Australian beef prices Productivity gains in the northern region 6.2 Northern Beef Cattle Numbers Table 6.1 and Figure 6.1 provide data on the number of cattle in the Australian northern beef industry over the period 2000/01 to 2006/07. Data for the four years earlier than 2000/01 are also reported to provide a base for change over the period. Table 6.1: Australian Northern Beef Industry Cattle Numbers Year ending MarchNumber of Cattle (000)QLDNTWA (a) )Total 199710,1301,60959012,329199810,5621,56661012,738199910,4441,56660012,610200011,5031,57067913,752Average10,6601,57862012,858200111,0881,70766013,455200211,2841,77765313,714200310,5071,68359912,789200411,2451,73064713,622200511,5111,75662313,890200611,7641,67477614,214200711,8281,91272814,468 Source: ABARE (2007) (a) Pilbara and Kimberley only; ABS statistics for 2004/05 show there was 33% of the WA beef cattle herd in these two statistical divisions; this percentage has been applied to the total WA beef cattle numbers in other years to derive the northern industry number estimates for WA. Figure 6.1: Trend in Australian Northern Beef Cattle Numbers  6.3 Northern Beef Industry Slaughterings Table 6.2 and Figure 6.2 provide data on the number of slaughterings of adult cattle by state. These numbers are only an estimate of the numbers slaughtered that emanate from northern beef producers. The number slaughtered in the Northern Territory was negligible over this period. Table 6.2: Australian Northern Beef Industry Slaughterings Year ending JuneNumber Slaughtered in Queensland (a) Number Slaughtered in Western Australia (a) (b)Total Slaughtered in Australia (a)Estimate of Total Number Slaughtered in Northern Region (c)Australian Average Carcase Weight (kg per head) (d)19972,5184077,2702,55921219983,0154488,0523,06021319993,3074397,9393,35122720003,3123947,5203,351235Average 1997 to 20003,038 422 7,695 3,080 22220013,6574157,9413,55623720023,5143687,6243,55123120033,5154308,0833,55722420043,5644637,7533,61024020053,6905117,9863,74124720063,6474347,5803,69024720073,8314498,1623,876NaSource: MLA database Up to one third of this number would have emanated from the northern industry; the number is probably significantly less than one third due to preponderance of live cattle exports from this area. Estimated by adding Queensland column to only 10% of Western Australia column, thus allowing for high level of live exports from the north of WA. Source: ABARE (2007) and refers to all beef industry; probably includes weight of calves in this average as total slaughter numbers for ABARE are slightly more than for MLA. Figure 6.2: Australian Northern Beef Industry Slaughterings  6.4 Australian Beef and Veal Production Table 6.3 provides data on the production of beef and veal in Australia over the period 1996/97 to 2006/07. Table 6.3: Australian Beef and Veal Production Year ending JuneBeef Production (kt)19971,93919981,98719991,99120002,05320012,07920022,09020031,99820042,11320052,09020062,1882007n.a.Source: ABARE (2007) 6.5 Branding and Turnoff Rates for Northern Beef Table 6.4 provides data on the branding rate for northern beef enterprises over the period 1996/97 to 2006/07. Unfortunately, data for a number of years were not available. Table 6.4: Northern Beef Branding Rate Year ending JuneBranding Rate (%)1997761998711999722000782001762002752003n.a.2004n.a.2005702006712007n.a.Source: ABARE, Agsurf (2008) Table 6.5 provides data on the turnoff rate for beef properties in the northern live cattle exporting zone from 2000/01 to 2005/06. Table 6.5: Northern Beef Turnoff Rate Year ending JuneTurnoff Rate (%) (a)200130200231200331200433200533200633Source: Drum and Gunning-Trant (2008) 6.6 Beef Prices Tables 6.6A&B and Figures 6.3A&B provide data on the saleyard prices for Queensland beef over the period. Table 6.6A: Saleyard Prices for Queensland Beef Cattle (nominal $ terms) Year ended June Beef Prices (c/kg carcase weight) (nominal terms )Japan OxKorean SteerTrade SteerUS Cow200024123325620620012832722972462002317311333286200329227028624120043153073242722005336336358295200633634336629420073313213322692008316315332255Source: MLA Database Table 6.6B: Saleyard Prices for Queensland Beef Cattle (2007/08 $ terms) Year ended June Beef Prices (c/kg carcase weight) (2007/08 $ terms)Japan OxKorean SteerTrade SteerUS Cow200031330333326820013473343643022002378371397341200333931433228020043573483673082005372372396326200635736538931320073453343462802008316315332255 Figure 6.3A: Queensland Beef Prices (nominal $ terms)  Figure 6.3B: Queensland Beef Prices (2007/08 $ terms)  6.7 Live Cattle Exports from Northern Australia The State origins of live cattle exports are shown in Table 6.7. A high proportion of live cattle exports from Australia are derived from the northern beef industry. Figure 6.4 (from a recent ABARE study) shows the importance of the Western Australian and Northern Territory in supplying live cattle exports from 1990 to 2006. Drum and Gunning-Trant (2008) state that more then 80% of total live cattle exports have been sourced from northern Australia. Also they report that 75% of large beef properties in the northern region were either partially of substantially reliant on receipts from live export cattle overt the period studied. Table 6.7: Live Cattle Exports by State Year Northern Territory Queensland Western Australia Total from Northern Region Total from Australia1997365,274183,659285,060833,993948,0631998191,41876,865260,350528,653621,1211999237,444163,722343,849745,015844,2292000303,941187,308323,248814,497895,9822001223,493166,873338,683729,049822,4742002306,309236,895315,410858,614971,8802003246,045142,316301,094689,455774,2482004197,97567,421275,823541,219637,7482005218,90337,523267,947524,373572,7992006246,15832,558315,198593,914634,314Source of Data: Livecorp Figure 6.4: Origin of Live Cattle Exports: 1990 to 2006  Source: Drum and Gunning-Trant (2008) 6.8 Productivity Changes Growth in output of an industry, such as that exhibited by the beef industry since 2000, can be generated, for example, by using more land or labour, that is by increasing input use. Another source of output growth can be productivity growth, that is a higher output per unit of one or more inputs. A useful general measure of productivity changes in an industry is total factor productivity (TFP). TFP is calculated by dividing an index of the volume of industry outputs by an index of the volume of industry inputs. Most total factor productivity measures for Australian rural industries have been estimated from the annual farm survey data conducted by ABARE. Table 6.8 provides a summary of a number of studies undertaken in Australia that provide total factor productivity measures based on data since 1977. Some of these TFP estimates refer to the beef industry but only a few to the more specific northern beef industry. Table 6.8: Total Factor Productivity Measures Type of farmProductivity gain PeriodDairyKnopke et al. (2000)Dairy farms1.6% p.a.1978-1999 (22 yrs)Males et al. (1990)Dairy farms1.9% p.a.1978-1989 (12 yrs)ABARE (2004)Dairy farms 1.7% p.a.1978-2002 (15 yrs)ABARE (2004)Dairy farms 2.1% p.a.1977-1990 (13 yrs)ABARE (2004)Dairy farms 1.1% p.a.1988-2002 (14 yrs)GrainsKnopke et al (2000)Cropping farms3.6 % p.a.1978-1999 (22 yrs)Mixed crop-livestock2.6% p.a. 1978-1999 (22 yrs)All crop farms3.2% p.a.1978-1999 (22 yrs)Knopke, Strappazon and Mullen, 1995)Cropping farms4.6% p.a.1978-1994 (17 yrs)Mixed crop livestock3.2 % p.a.1978-1994 (17 yrs)All crop farms3.8 % p.a.1978-1994 (17 yrs)ABARE (2004)Crop specialists 3.3% p.a.1977-2002 (25 yrs)WoolKnopke et al (2000)Sheep0.6% p.a.1978-1999 (22 yrs)Knopke, Strappazon and Mullen, 1995)Sheep1.0 % p.a.1978-1994 (17 yrs)Anon (1995)SheepResults reported by state and zone and ranged from 0 to 1% p.a. 1979-1994 (16 yrs)BeefKnopke et al (2000)Beef2.1 % p.a.1978-1999 (22 yrs)Knopke, Strappazon and Mullen, 1995)Beef1.6% p.a.1978-1994 (17 yrs)ABARE (2004)Beef specialists 1.8% p.a.1977-2002 (25 yrs)ABARE (2004) Beef specialists 2.1% p.a.1988-2002 (14 yrs)ABARE (2004)Beef specialists - north 2.2% p.a.1977-2002 (25 yrs)ABARE (2004)Beef specialists  north1.1% p.a.1977-1990 (13 yrs)ABARE (2004)Beef specialists  north3.3% p.a.1988-2002 (14 yrs)ABARE (2008) Northern region 1.2% p.a.1977-2006 (29 yrs)ABARE (2008)Southern region 1.3% p.a.1977-2006 (29 yrs)ABARE (2008)Northern region 2.1% p.a.1985-2006 (20 yrs)Broadacre industries Knopke et al (2000)All broadacre farms2.6 % p.a.1978-1999 (22 yrs)Knopke, Strappazon and Mullen, 1995)All broadacre farms2.6 % p.a.1978-1994 (17 yrs)Mullen and Cox (1995)All broadacre farms2.3% p.a.1953-1988 (36 yrs)Males et al (1990)All broadacre farms2.2% p.a.1978-1989 (12 yrs)Mixed sheep farms ABARE (2004)Sheep -beef1.0% p.a.1977-2002 (25 yrs)ABARE (2004)Sheep-crops 2.5% p.a.1977-2002 (25 yrs)Mixed crop-livestock ABARE (2008)Mixed crop-livestock1.7% p.a.1977-2006 (29 yrs)Sheep IndustryABARE (2008)Sheep 0.3% p.a.1977-2006 (29 yrs)Sheep specialist farms ABARE (2004)Sheep specialist farms 0.9% p.a.1977-2002 (25 yrs)ABARE (2004)Sheep specialist farms 0.6% p.a.1977-1990 (13 yrs)ABARE (2004)Sheep specialist farms 1.2% p.a.1988-2002 (14 yrs)ABARE (2004)Specialist prime lamb farms 1.6% p.a.1977-2002 (25 yrs)ABARE (2004)Farms with prime lambs where prime lamb receipts >20% 0.8% p.a.1988-2002 (14 yrs)ABARE (2004)Farms with prime lambs where prime lamb receipts 5-20%2.8% p.a.1988-2002 (14 yrs)ABARE (2004)Farms with prime lambs where prime lamb receipts <5%0.3% p.a.1988-2002 (14 yrs) It is evident from Table 6.8 that the highest productivity growth in Australian broadacre agriculture has been in the grains sector (TFP growth of over 3% p.a.), followed by beef and dairy industries (around 2% p.a.) and then by the sheep/wool industry (around 1% or less p.a.). Before ABARE (2008), the beef industry appeared to have been exhibiting positive productivity growth of around 2% per annum. However, the latest estimate from ABARE in 2008 suggests that the productivity gains have been closer to 1% p.a. than to 2%, over the period 1977 to 2006. This reduction is particularly noticeable for the northern beef industry, where ABARE (2004) estimated a gain of 3.3% p.a. from 1977 to 2002. However, for the northern region there is a clear break in the series with a higher productivity trend occurring from 1985/86 to 2005/06 (2.1% p.a.) (ABARE, 2008). The ABARE explanation for the fall is not yet conclusive but it appears to be associated with some revisions to various elements of the approach used (e.g. definition of variables, scope of farms, and estimation techniques) (Zhao, pers.comm., 2008). The new approach does not appear to have changed the TFP estimate for industries other than beef. Linkages between Productivity and R&D Investment While productivity changes are usually associated with technological change (and hence are likely to be a result of R&D investment), other factors also influence annual productivity changes. These include seasonal conditions (climate, disease outbreaks) and changing industry structures such as specialisation or scale changes. Linking productivity changes to R&D investment can be effected quantitatively via econometric/production function approaches. Also, qualitative approaches can be used to explain single or total factor productivity changes by reference to R&D activities and outputs. Qualitative associations have been made between R&D outputs and productivity changes in a number of industries including cotton where the relative contribution of some important factors contributing to the increase in cotton yields in Australia in the past 20 years (Constable, 2000) are: Plant breeding 45% Soil-nutrition-irrigation management 25% Insect control 20% Disease management 10% The increase in milk yield per cow and the increasing protein and fat content of milk has been attributed to: Supplementary feeding Improved genetics Pasture management Intensive feeding Much of the increased productivity observed over the past 80 years in dried fruits has been attributed to: Trellising systems Irrigation management Vigour enhancing and salt/nematode resistant rootstocks Virus free clonal grapevines The Knopke et al (2000) study refers to workshops to identify drivers of past productivity growth in the grain industry. Gains had come from a wide range of factors including many that were R&D related. Major factors included: Management and work skills Farm amalgamations and scale of operations Plant breeding Improved crop rotations Tillage practices Better pest (including weeds) and disease control More and better targeted fertiliser use Advances in tractor and machinery design Given that many of these drivers are associated with technological change, a further consideration is whether Australian funded RD&E dominated such technological change. The issue is that some technological change may have occurred due to the ingenuity of farmers, as well as technology imported from overseas. In summary, in attributing productivity changes to RD&E, there needs to be recognition that: factors other than technology and its adoption can contribute to observed industry productivity improvements. some technology development and adoption can occur that is not driven by Australian publicly funded RD&E investment. 7. Description of Key Drivers of Change 7.1 Pre-Investment Situation (pre 2000-2001) In the thirty years before the year 2000, the northern beef industry was characterised by (Whan et al, 2006): the commencement of change from European breeds to Bos indicus a singular focus on finishing for maximum weight slaughtering carried out by abattoirs located in the north emphasis on the US lean beef market limited culling of females serious diseases such as brucellosis, tuberculosis and reproductive diseases poor roading and communications The thirty year period up to the year 2000 saw the following significant changes: eradication of diseases such as tuberculosis and brucellosis widespread use of Bos Indicus cattle and crossbreeds closure of most northern abattoirs development of integrated supply chains and value based marketing pasture development through introduced species and spread of naturalsed species significant watering and fencing developments the use of genetically superior animals with regard to weight gain and eating quality nutritional management changes including grazing management and supplementation strategies in both wet and dry seasons Improved animal management including early weaning, parasite and disease control methods, and reproductive management growth of the feedlot sector growth of the live export market diversification of markets including live export, feeder steers, and slaughter markets for both local and export consumption RD&E investment in the production area by MLA (and its predecessors) with industry and government funding, the State DPIs, CSIRO, and the Universities supported many of these changes. A survey in the late 1996/97 provided a snapshot of management practices being used by producers in the northern beef industry at that time (Bortolussi et al, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2005d, 2005e). Branding rates varied from 63% in the Northern Territory to 77% in the south and south west of Queensland. Nearly all properties surveyed used weaning strategies with peaks of weaning in April to July at 6-10 months and with weaner liveweights being around 200 kg. The common culling age was 10 years for cows and 7-8 years for bulls. In addition to age bulls were culled for physical defects, reproductive problems, temperament and poor quality/performing calves. BREEDPLAN was one of 5 criteria commonly used to select bulls. Producers using BREEDPLAN also used structural soundness and temperament as additional selection criteria; this was interpreted as producers associating increasing turn-off weight or decreasing turnoff age more with pasture improvement than with bulls of higher genetic merit for growth (Bortolussi et al, 2005a). Supplementation of the breeding herd increased from July to December. Supplements containing molasses, urea, phosphate, salt and sulphate of ammonia were the most commonly fed supplementary nutrients. Weaners were the most commonly supplemented animal class. The most commonly used pasture communities for growing and finishing cattle were black speargrass, birigalow, Mitchell grass, gidgee, and brigalow softwood scrub. A considerable number of introduced grass and legume species were sown by producers. Many of the sown species were spreading naturally including buffel grass. Stylosanthes species were the most commonly spreading legume species in areas with more than 500 mm of average annual rainfall. Weight gains were around the 150 kg per year but somewhat less in the far northern regions. Annual liveweight gain increased with increasing latitude and longitude. Half the survey group used hormonal growth promotants, mainly for steers and bullocks. More than 68% of producers reported woody weeds on their properties. Fire was used by most producers with the purpose of reducing rank material, reducing fire risk, controlling woody weeds and for grazing management. In the five years preceding the survey, more than 66% of producers had increased the number of stock watering points and more then 85% of producers had erected fencing; most fencing was for new paddocks and laneways. Visual observation was commonly used to determine stocking rate. More then 67% of producers used some form of paddock spelling or regeneration practice. 7.2 Summary of Key Drivers of Change (2000/01 to 2007/08) Performance Criteria ABARE (2004) report herd performance measures for beef specialist farms from 1977-78 to 2001/02 as shown in Table 7.1. At least up until 2002, Table 7.1 shows that the northern beef industry demonstrated a faster growth of herd performance variables than its southern counterpart. Table 7.1 Herd performance of Specialist Beef Farms 1977/78 to 2001/02 (Average annual changes %) Performance criteria North South Branding Rate 1.1 0.3Turnoff Rate1.4-0.9Death Rate -4.9-2.6 ABARE (2004) The herd performance information readily available for the northern beef industry since 2001 is patchy and limited. The definition of the northern beef industry used here is all of the Queensland and Northern Territory production as well as the Pilbara and Kimberley regions of Western Australia. Tables 6.1 to 6.8 show: a small increase in cattle numbers over the period 2000/01 to 2007/08, compared to the average of the four years before the investment commenced (Table 6.1) a small increase in slaughter numbers (Table 6.2) stable branding rates (Table 6.4) a small increase in turnoff rates (Table 6.5) static Australian beef prices (in real terms) that are assumed to apply to both southern and northern beef products (Table 6.6) static beef production on an Australia-wide basis (Table 6.3) static to declining live cattle exports from the northern region (Table 6.7) positive total factor productivities averaging 1% to 3% per annum for different parts of the Australian beef industry over different periods (Table 6.8) Nominating key drivers of these changes over a particular period is largely a subjective process. The key drivers of change over the period 2000/01 to 2007/08 have included the following: Generic/Integration Factors Improved management of industry RD&E investment from MLA management and leadership including inputs from the North Australia Beef Research Council (NABRC) and the Northern Beef Program Industry Committee (NBPIC). MLA and State agencies clearly played important roles in planning, funding and coordination of RD&E. In addition, industry organisations and others (including CSIRO, breed societies, producer groups, private and public consulting and educational groups) were also critical players in the progress made. Production Drivers The ability via BREEDPLAN for producers to access improved genetic technology it provided, to deliver animals that could grow more quickly and with superior eating quality. The development of new technology in terms of reproduction and nutritional aids, grazing management, and continuing investment in fencing and water improvements. The availability of new knowledge regarding bull selection and nutritional aids such as use of NIRS, has assisted producers to refine their management systems with impacts on weight gains, age of slaughter and offtake levels. A higher level of uptake of both new and existing technology by northern beef producers as a result of increasing profitability as well as the industry investment in extension, communication and training packages and the ensuing technology application and skills development by producers. The various extension and communication programs assisted producers to adopt best practice in producing to market specifications and took advantage of the increased profitability of beef production in the north due to the live export market and higher carcase beef prices. The strong market for live cattle exports has resulted in less cattle slaughtered from the northern industry than otherwise, with higher numbers of younger cattle being turned off each year. Producing more beef with the same level of inputs or the same level of beef with less inputs as demonstrated by the total factor productivity changes. The productivity of labour (3.9% pa) and capital (3.1% p.a.) inputs increased significantly up to at least 2002, followed by a lower increase in land productivity (1.6% p.a.) and a small increase in the productivity of purchased inputs (0.9% pa) (ABARE, 2004). The latest and preferred estimate of productivity growth in the north (1985 to 2006) is 2.1% pa. It could be assumed that this rate of improvement applies to the period of interest. 8. Assumptions for Valuing Benefits General Approach The approach used to value the benefits from the investment is a  top-down approach. This is applied to estimate the differences that the observed total RD&E production investments for northern beef have made compared to what would have occurred if the investments had not been made. This recognises the likelihood that some of the productivity gains observed could have been made without the RD&E investment. The benefits to the total RD&E investment are then estimated as the difference between the  with RD&E and  without RD&E scenarios. As MLA was not the only contributor to the estimated net benefit stream from RD&E, only part of the stream can be attributed to MLA. This attributed level of benefits is then matched with the actual RD&E investment by MLA over the period 2000/01 to 2007/08. It should be noted that the gains due to RD&E investment include those driven by new technology as well as by the effort made in encouraging producers to adopt existing technology. No attempt has been made to separate the research versus adoption impacts due to lack of data. Counterfactual Scenario In the period before 2000/01 it is assumed that productivity growth for the northern beef industry was running at 2.1% per annum (ABARE, 2008). If all RD&E investment in northern beef had ceased after 1999/2000, it is assumed there would still have been some productivity growth. Firstly, ABS figures for 2004/05 show that a small proportion of farms (413 farms or 2.4% of farms) in the northern beef industry run over 6,000 head each and this makes up 5.7 m head or 41% of all cattle in the northern industry. Changes on these farms are therefore likely to impact on the overall performance of the northern industry. It is possible that such enterprises (groups of them are owned by single families or large companies) may be quite capable of some innovation and seeking out of existing knowledge without industry/public RD&E investment in research, education and extension compared with smaller enterprises. Second, a proportion of observed productivity growth has probably been driven by the increased cattle prices driven by the live export market and capitalised on by northern beef producers (ABARE, 2008). This would have stimulated some adoption of existing technology. It is assumed much of this source of productivity growth would have been present anyway in the absence of industry/public RD&E investment over the period. Third, private sector interests such as Resource Consulting Services would have continued their fee paying courses (e.g. Grazing for Profit, Whole Farm Planning and Strategic Planning) and maintained some impact on the industry leading to further productivity improvements. Also, industry structural changes such as size economies and integration of enterprises would have continued without the RD&E investment. Other non-technical sources of change may have been the rising education level of producers and infrastructure improvements to transport and communications (Mullen, 2007), particularly relevant in the northern region. Fourth, there has not been overly significant new technology developed during the past eight years. Much of the productivity growth from RD&E would have emanated from adoption or adaptation of existing technology. The RD&E investment/s major impact would have been on this source of productivity growth. Overall, it is estimated that 60% of the observed productivity growth over the period would have still occurred without the industry/public RD&E investment for the eight years. It is assumed that the initial productivity growth would have fallen from 1999/2000 (2.1% p.a.) to 2004/05 (1.26% p.a.) and then continued on at that level. This productivity gain could be viewed as declining from the 2.1% (running on existing technology) for several years and reaching the 1.26% p.a. level in 2004/05. The cost of production of beef in 2000/01 is assumed to have been $1.94 per kg carcase weight in 2007/08 $ terms. This has been derived from an average cost of production of kg liveweight in 2005/06 (MLA, 2007) by adjusting for dollar term differences, productivity changes and carcase yield). The productivity gain of 1.26% per annum was then translated into a cost of production reduction. This annual gain would have been cumulative. Most of the productivity changes have been output increasing rather than input reducing. A conservative approach to estimating economic surplus has been applied. The economic surplus approach assumes a downward shift of the supply curve due to the cost reduction (Edwards and Freebairn, 1981). The method used in this analysis estimates the economic surplus by multiplying the unit cost reduction by the average quantity produced before the investment commenced. This ignores the additional economic surplus caused by the downward shift of the supply curve; in most cases this additional surplus is relatively insignificant and therefore the method used here is a reasonable approximation (Mullen, 1996). This additional surplus is directly related to the elasticities of the demand and supply curves. The  with RD&E Scenario This is the observed scenario that has actually occurred and is based on the ABARE productivity gain of 2.1% p.a. (mid 1980s to 2005/06) (ABARE, 2008). The with RD&E investment post 1999/2000 is assumed to have maintained the productivity growth at 2.1% as it produced some new technology and stimulated further adoption of existing technology. This is assumed to occur until 2008/09 when the gain (2.1% p.a.) would start to decrease as RD&E investment was withdrawn after 2007/08. After 2007/08 it is assumed that the productivity gain would have fallen from 2.1% pa to 1.26% p.a. over five years and then continued on at this level. The productivity gain of 2.1% per annum was then translated into a cost of production reduction as described earlier. As for the counterfactual scenario, the benefits are estimated only on the average annual production level that applied in the four years before the investment commenced in 2000/01. Attribution of Benefits to MLA It was estimated that about 20% of the actual total northern beef RD&E investment over the period has been made by MLA. The percentage estimate derived from Table 3.2 is actually over 22% but has been rounded for purposes of the analysis to 20%. The other 80% of funding has been made by other research and extension agencies, predominantly the State Departments of Primary Industries (DPIs), as well as such organisations as the CSIRO and Universities. However, MLA has leveraged some of this 80% into beef RD&E by funding projects in part if other organisations also committed resources. It is estimated that without the MLA investment, the hypothetical RD&E effort (observed at say 80%) would have fallen by about one quarter. For example, if the observed RD&E commitment over the period had been 100 units, and MLA committed 20 units, then, in the absence of MLA funding the commitment by others would have been only 60 instead of 80 units. Thus, it could be argued that approximately 25% of the observed benefits over a zero industry/public RD&E scenario could be considered attributable to MLA. Summary of Assumptions A summary of the assumptions made for valuing the principal benefits from the R&D investment is given in Table 8.1 Table 8.1: Assumptions for Estimating Investment Criteria for Production RD&E for Northern Beef Variable Assumption SourceProduction performance in the 1990sAverage Annual Northern Beef Numbers in four years before July 200012.858 m cattle Table 6.1Average Annual Northern Beef Turnoff for Slaughter and Live Export in four years before July 200030% Table 6.5 Implied carcase weight 222 kgAverage for Australia from 1997 to 2000 (ABARE) Average annual weight of carcase beef produced 1997 to 2000 (includes equivalent carcase weight of cattle exported live) 856,343 tonnes12,858,000 times 30% times 0.222 tonnesCost of production in 1999/2000$1.03 per kg liveweight in 2007/08 terms after adjustment for productivity changesBased on $0.915 per kg liveweight in 2005/06 $ terms (derived from MLA, 2007)Carcase yield 55% of liveweight Agtrans Research Observed productivity gain occurring before 2000/012.1% p.a. Based on Table 6.8Without All RD&E Investment Productivity gain post 1999/2000 2.1% p.a. falling to 1.26% p.a. by 2004/05 (60% of 2.1%) Agtrans Research based on ABARE (2008) With All RD&E Investment to 2007/08Productivity gain post 1999/20002.1% p.a. to 2007/08 falling to 1.26% p.a. by 20012/13 Agtrans Research based on ABARE (2008) Attribution of total RD&E benefits to MLA 20%Agtrans Research based on Table 3.2 9. Investment Criteria Results All past costs and benefits were expressed in 2007/08 dollar terms using the CPI. All benefits after 2007/08 were expressed in 2007/08 dollar terms. All costs and benefits were discounted or compounded to 2007/08 using a discount rate of 5%. The discount rate of 5% was selected in line with the guidelines of the standardised evaluation process adopted by the Committee of Chairs of the Rural R&D Corporations (RDCs). The standard analysis ran for 20 years from the last year of investment (2007/08). Investment criteria of Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) were estimated at a discount rate of 5%. The NPV is the difference between the Present Value of Benefits (PVB) and the Present Value of Costs (PVC). Present values are the sum of discounted streams of benefits and/or costs. The B/C Ratio is the ratio of the PVB to the PVC. The IRR is the discount rate that would equate the PVB and the PVC, thus making the NPV zero and the B/C ratio 1:1. A glossary of economic terms is available in Appendix 3. Results are presented for the total investment in RD&E as well as for MLA alone. The attribution of the total benefits stream is based on the proportion of total costs in 2007/08 $ terms that has been contributed by MLA (estimated at 11%). The investment criteria are reported in Table 9.1. Total investment includes that for MLA, State DPIs and other public RD&E investment such as that from CSIRO and the Universities. Table 9.1: Investment Criteria for Investment in Northern Beef Production RD&E (discount rate 5%, 20 year benefit horizon) Criterion Total Investment MLA Investment Present value of benefits (m$)1,723194Present value of costs (m$)41246Net present value (m$)1,310148Benefit cost ratio4.24.2Internal rate of return (%)27.328.7 Tables 9.2 and 9.3 provide the investment criteria for alternative time horizons for benefits (5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years after the year of last investment). The investment criteria are for both total investment and for MLA investment alone. Table 9.2: Investment Criteria for Total Investment  Different Benefit Horizons (discount rate 5%) Criterion 0 years5 years10 years15 years20 years25 yearsPresent value of benefits (m$)3418041,1871,4881,7231,907Present value of costs (m$)412412412412412412Net present value (m$)-713927751,0751,3111,495Benefit cost ratio0.81.92.93.64.24.6Internal rate of return (%)Negative22.726.327.127.327.3Table 9.3: Investment Criteria for MLA Investment  Different Benefit Horizons (discount rate 5%) Criterion 0 years5 years10 years15 years20 years25 yearsPresent value of benefits (m$)3891134168194215Present value of costs (m$)464646464646Net present value (m$)-74588122148169Benefit cost ratio0.81.92.93.64.24.7Internal rate of return (%)Negative24.327.828.528.728.8 Cash flow of benefits The cash flow of benefits is shown in Figure 9.1 for the total investment. Figure 9.1: Benefit Cash Flow  Sensitivity Analyses Sensitivity analyses were carried out on a range of variables and results are reported in Tables 9.4 to 9.6. All sensitivity analyses were performed using a 5% discount rate (except for Table 9.4) and for the MLA investment only (except for Table 9.6). Benefits were estimated over the life of the investment plus 20 years from the year of last investment. All other parameters were held at their base values. Table 9.4: Sensitivity of Investment Criteria to the Discount Rate (MLA Investment, 20 year benefit horizon) Criterion Discount rate 5%Low value 2.5%Base value 5%High value 10%Present value of benefits ($m)232194148Present value of costs ($m)424654Net present value ($m)19014894Benefit-cost ratio5.54.22.7 Table 9.5 shows the changes in investment criteria with different assumptions regarding the proportion of the productivity gain observed that would have occurred without the RD&E investment. The RD&E investment has to contribute only 10% to the total productivity gain observed in order for the investment to break even at a 5% discount rate. Table 9.5: Sensitivity to Contribution to Observed Productivity Gain by RD&&E investment (MLA investment, 5% discount rate; 20 year benefit horizon) Criterion 20%40% (Base)60%Present value of benefits (m$)97194291Present value of costs (m$)464646Net present value (m$)51148245Benefit cost ratio2.14.26.3Internal rate of return (%)14.428.742.2 Table 9.6 shows the changes in investment criteria with different assumptions regarding the overhead multiplier for the State Agencies, CSIRO etc. Table 9.6: Sensitivity to Overhead Multiplier for RD&E Expenditure (Total investment, 5% discount rate; 20 year benefit horizon) Criterion 1 (salaries plus on costs only ) 1.5 (Base)2.5Present value of benefits (m$)1,7231,7231,723Present value of costs (m$)290412657Net present value (m$)1,4331,3101,066Benefit cost ratio5.94.22.6Internal rate of return (%)37.727.317.5 10. Investment Analysis Case Studies The results of this top down approach to analysing the investment is supported by a series of investment analyses for specific investments by MLA and others in northern beef RD&E . Summaries of these analyses are reported in Appendix 1. Some of the benefits from these investments will apply to southern beef and sheepmeat as well as northern beef (specifically EDGEnetwork? and Beef Cattle Genetics). Hence the results summarised in Appendix 1 can not be compared directly with the top down approach by simply summing benefits or net present values. However, the benefit cost ratios reported would apply directly to northern beef and they ranged from 3 to 1 up to 35 to 1. 11. Conclusions The analysis has used a top down approach to estimate the return to MLA investment in northern beef cattle RD&E over the period 2000/01 to 2007/08. The top down approach has involved comparing a  with RD&E investment scenario with the scenario of what would have happened if the specified RD&E investment had not taken place. Assumptions to shape the latter scenario are difficult and usually have to be subjectively made. Given the assumptions made, the investment has provided a high return to the industry and to Australian economy. Consumers and intermediaries along the supply chain will have benefited as well as northern beef producers. The investment criteria for the total investment made in production RD&E are quite positive, demonstrating that the investment has been successful in economic terms. The net present value for the total investment is estimated at $1,310 million (5% discount rate, 2007/08$ terms, discounted to 2007/08, 20 year benefit horizon). The benefit cost ratio is estimated at 4.2 to 1, and the internal rate of return is estimated at over 27% per annum. As the MLA investment has been about 11% of the total RD&E investment, the MLA investment has been reported as providing a net present value of $148 million and a similar benefit cost ratio and internal rate of return as reported above for total investment. Acknowledgements Lewis Atkinson, Meat and Livestock Australia Michael Goldberg, Meat and Livestock Australia Wayne Hall, Manager, MLA Northern Beef Program Skye Richmond, Meat and Livestock Australia Greg Robbins, Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries Steven Skinnner, Agricultural Business Research Institute, Armidale Shiji Zhao, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics An acknowledgment is made also to various personnel in the DPI State Agencies in Western Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland for assisting with their estimates of RD&E investment. References ABARE (2004)  Australian Beef Industry , Australian Beef 04.2, Canberra. ABARE (2007) Australian Commodity Statistics, Canberra. ABARE (2008)  Productivity Growth , Australian Commodities, Vol 15 No 1, March 2008. Anon (1995)  The Productivity of Specialist Wool Growing in Australia , Report to the IWS by Swan Consultants, Canberra Axiom Research (2007)  Meat and Livestock Australia: Awareness and Adoption, KPI Evaluation 2007 , MLA, Sydney. Bortolussi G, McIvor J , Hodkinson J, Coffey S, and Holmes R (2005a)  The Northern Australian Beef Industry, a snapshot. 1. Regional Enterprise Activity and Structure , Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 45 (9) 1057-1073, CSIRO. Bortolussi G, McIvor J , Hodkinson J, Coffey S, and Holmes R (2005b)  The Northern Australian Beef Industry, a snapshot. 2. Breeding Herd performance and Management , Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 45 (9) 1075 -1091, CSIRO. Bortolussi G, McIvor J , Hodkinson J, Coffey S, and Holmes R (2005c)  The Northern Australian Beef Industry, a snapshot. 3. Annual Liveweight Gains from Pasture Based Systems , Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 45 (9) 1093-1108, CSIRO. Bortolussi G, McIvor J , Hodkinson J, Coffey S, and Holmes R (2005d)  The Northern Australian Beef Industry, a snapshot. 4. Condition and Management of Natural Resources , Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 45 (9) 1109-1120, CSIRO. Bortolussi G, McIvor J , Hodkinson J, Coffey S, and Holmes R (2005e)  The Northern Australian Beef Industry, a snapshot. 4. Land and Pasture Development Practices , Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 45 (9) 1121-1129, CSIRO. Centre for International Economics (2001)  The CRC for Weed Management Systems: an Impact Assessment  , CRC for Weed Management Systems, Technical Series No 6, University of Adelaide. Centre for International Economics (2007)  Guidelines for Economic Evaluation of R&D , Report prepared for the Grains R&D Corporation and the Rural Industries R&D Corporation by the Centre for International Economics , Canberra. Constable G A (2000)  The components of high yields in Australia , CSIRO Cotton Research Unit, mimeo paper. Drum F, Gunning Trant C (2008)  Live Animal Exports: A Profile of the Australian Industry , ABARE Research Report 08.1, Canberra. Edwards G and Freebairn J (1981)  Measuring a Country s Gains from Research: Theory and Application to Rural Research in Australia , Report to the Commonwealth Council for Rural Research and Extension, Canberra, AGPS. GRDC (1992)  Gains for Grain: Volume 3, Guidelines for Economic Evaluation , Occasional Paper Series no 3, Canberra. GRDC (1993)  Gains for Grain: Volume 3, Benefit  Cost Methods in Research Evaluation , P D Chudleigh and K A Bond (Eds), Proceedings of a workshop held in Canberra, Occasional Paper Series no 3, Canberra. Griffith G (2005)  Estimating the Economic Impact of a Major Beef Industry Research and Development Investment: the renewal of the CRC for Beef Genetic Technologies , CRC, Armidale. Hassall and Associates (2004)  Triple Bottom Line Evaluations: Volume 1: Review of Southern Beef and Lamb and Sheepmeat Programs , Report to MLA. Hooper S (2007)  LPI Awareness and Adoption 2005-06: Meat and Livestock Australia: Management Practices Survey 2005-06 , ABARE, Canberra. Knopke P, O Donnell V and Shepherd A (2000)  Productivity Growth in the Australian Grains Industry , ABARE Research Report 2000.1, Canberra. Knopke P, Strappazon L and Mullen J (1995)  Productivity Growth: Total Factor Productivity in Australian Broadacre Farms , December Quarter, Australian Commodities, ABARE. Livecorp (http://www.livecorp.com.au/index1.cfm?category=402) Males W, Davidson H, Knopke P, Loncar T, and Roarty M, (1990)  Productivity Growth and Development in Australia s Primary Industries  , ABARE Discussion Paper, Canberra. MLA (2007)  Calculating Cost of Production for Your Beef Enterprise , Tips and Tools. McCausland I (2006)  Report Relating to Red Meat Research, Development and Extension MLA, Sydney. Mullen J (1996)  Returns to Agriculture from Public Research between 1953 and 1994 , Report for RIRDC, Canberra Mullen J (2007)  Productivity Growth and the Returns from Public Investment in R&D in Australian Agriculture , Presidential Address to 51st Annual Conference of AARES, Queenstown, New Zealand. Mullen J D and Cox T L (1995)  The Returns from Research in Australian Broadacre Agriculture , Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics Vol 39, No 2. Solutions Marketing and Research (2004)  Producer R&D Awareness and Adoption Research: Northern Beef Report Prepared for MLA, January 2004. Taverner Research (2007)  Frontier Magazine Evaluation , Report to MLA, December 2007. Vere D, Griffith G, Silvester L (2005)  Australian Sheep Industry CRC: Economic Evaluation of Scientific Research Programs , NSW DPI and Sheep CRC, Economic Report No 27, December 2005. Welsman S (2001)  PIRDS: MLA Producer Initiated Research and Development: Strategic Review , May 2001. Whan I, Bortolussi G, and Backus R (2006)  The Impact of Innovation on Beef Production in Far Northern Australia  , Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 46, 271-282, CSIRO Appendix 1: Supporting Economic Evaluation Case Studies Other investment analyses that support the top down analysis presented earlier are reported in this appendix. Most of these analyses were carried out recently by Agtrans Research under processes managed by MLA. Some of the analyses were used in the accountability process initiated by the Committee of Chairs of the RDCs. These economic evaluations included: Bullpower Grazing Land Management Faecel NIRS Quantitative Genetics Research for the Beef Industry EDGEnetwork? The results of these evaluations are provided in Table A.1. Summaries are given in the following sub-sections A1 to A5. Table A.1: Summary of Investment Analyses Results for Northern Beef Investment (5% discount rate, discounting to 2005/06, 2005/06 $ terms, 25 year benefit horizon) Investment PVBPVCNPVB/CBullpower28.961.7427.2216.6Grazing Land Management 28.680.8127.8735.4Faecal NIRS25.843.2922.567.9Quantitative Genetics Research 16.744.7112.033.6EDGEnetwork? 59.214.744.54.0 A.1 Bullpower - Delivery of Adequate Normal Sperm to Site of Fertilisation Table 1 presents the resources invested in Bullpower by MLA and the researchers, by year. Table 1: Resources Invested by Year for MLA, NAP3 Partners and the Researchers for Projects DAQ.104 and NAP3.117 (nominal $) YearMLA fundsNAP3 partnersDPI&FJCUCSIROUQTotalDPI QLd project 1994/9550,000050,00014,28614,28614,286142,8581995/9670,000070,00020,00020,00020,000200,0001996/9765,000065,00018,57118,57118,571185,7131997/9825,240025,2407,2117,2117,21172,113MLA project 1999/0015,4355,56548,00000069,0002000/0139,13914,111124,250000177,5002001/0283,2500194,250000277,5002002/0327,750064,75000092,500Total375,81419,676641,49060,06860,06860,0681,217,184 Table 2 summarises the economic, environmental and social benefits from the above investment. Table 2: Summary of the Economic, Environmental and Social Benefits from the Investment EconomicEnvironmentalSocialDecreased capital cost of bulls per calf siredIncreased confidence in decision making ability with respect to bull mating percentagesGreater rate of genetic gain for bulls produced in the herd A summary of all assumptions made to value the benefits is given in Table 3. Table 3: Assumptions for the Valuation of Benefits from Bullpower investment VariableValueSourceTotal size of northern Australian beef herd9.5 million adult equivalentsQDPI&FFirst year of benefits2002/03Agtrans assumptionMaximum level of adoption10%QDPI&FYear of maximum adoption2011/12Agtrans assumptionIncrease in gross margin per adult equivalent per annum$3.25QDPI&F Table 4 shows the results of the investment analysis at a discount rate of 5%. Table 4: Investment Criteria (5% discount rate) Criterion All Benefits and all costsPresent value of benefits ($m)28.96Present value of costs ($m)1.74Net present value ($m)27.22Benefit-cost ratio16.6 to 1Internal rate of return (%)29.3 The  Bullpower investment achieved its objectives and produced significant findings with respect to physical, seminal and behavioural traits affecting calf output. The findings have been incorporated into learning materials, and are being extended to producers via courses and veterinarians. The quantitative analysis has shown that, assuming a maximum adoption rate of 10% of the northern Australian beef herd, the investment in the two projects is highly successful at a 5% discount rate, with a B/C Ratio of 16 to 1 and a net present value of over $27 million. A.2 Grazing Land Management: Education Package Technical Manual Integrating productivity and sustainability management of northern grazing lands had become a high priority in the late 1990s. The Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (QDPI&F) through the Queensland Beef Industry Institute together with MLA identified the necessity to collate, evaluate and integrate all relevant information on grazing management in the northern regions of Australia. QDPI&F developed principles and practices for grazing land management in northern Australia through the identification, evaluation, and synthesis of available information. This information was refined and adapted to accommodate the assessment of options for improving grazing land management on individual properties. The package produced was based on a leaning outcomes approach, recognised prior learning, stressed continuous learning and provided the opportunity for the course to be accredited. The total investment costs in the project are shown in Table 1. Table 1: Resources Invested by Year for MLA, the Researchers and Funding Partners (nominal $) YearNAP3 funds (a)QDPI&F funds (b)Total2000/01240,909160,606401,5152001/020002002/03108,00072,000180,000Total348,909232,606581,515Assumes that NAP3 funds included 73.5% from MLA. This is based on the assumption that LWA contributed 26.5% of NAP3 input to subprogram 2 (grazing management systems) of NAP3 (Source Andrew Ash, pers. comm., 2005). Assumes QDPI&F input was two thirds of that of NAP3, based on the contract between MLA and QDPI&F. Table 2 provides a summary of the benefits from the GLM investment. Table 2: Summary of the Economic, Environmental and Social Benefits from the Investment in GLM EconomicEnvironmentalSocialEnhanced productivity of northern Australia meat and livestock production through improved management decision making Enhanced biodiversity on farmIncreased personal capacity to manage and cope so reducing stress and improving quality of life Increased net farm income of producers Reduced soil erosion and reduced sediment export to waterways resulting in improved water quality Enhanced effectiveness of participation in regional and industry affairs  Table 3 shows the results of the investment analysis at a discount rate of 5%. Table 3: Investment Criteria (discount rate is 5%) Criterion All benefits and all costsPresent value of benefits ($m)28.68Present value of costs ($m)0.81Net present value ($m)27.87Benefit-cost ratio35.44 to 1Internal rate of return (%)26.6 The original investment in the education package has led to extremely popular workshops being delivered throughout northern Australia. Given the assumptions made in the investment analysis, the financial returns are very positive. As sustainability benefits have not been valued in the analysis, the resulting investment criteria are likely to be underestimates. At a discount rate of 5%, the net present value of the MLA investment is estimated at $12.29 m and the benefit cost ratio at 35 to 1. A.3 Faecal NIRS: A Tool for Predicting Diet Quality in Grazing Cattle Difficulty in estimating the intake of nutrients from pasture has been a limitation to applying nutritional science to the management of grazing cattle. Historically, producers have assessed animal condition to make decisions associated with supplementary feeding, paddock movements and selling off stock. Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (NIRS) is an analytical technique where near infrared radiation is beamed onto a substance and the energy can be absorbed, transmitted or reflected. The amount reflected depends on the physical and chemical properties of the material being analysed. The reflectance of every second wavelength from 400  2500 nm within the near infrared band can be measured to produce a  reflectance spectrum or NIR spectrum. Quantitative estimates or predictions of different attributes of interest (e.g. protein) can be derived from NIR spectra using calibration equations (Coates & Jackson, 2003). Table 1 presents the investment costs by year. Table 1: Resources Invested by Year for MLA, the Researchers and Funding Partners YearProjectMLA fundsNAP3 funding partnersResearchers (in-kind)(a)Total1999/2000NAP3.11614,7005,30020,00040,0002000/01NAP3.12134,87412,57488,118135,5662001/02NAP3.121189,7950352,476542,271NBP.30249,729099,458149,187NBP.30332,029064,05896,0872002/03NAP3.1165,00005,00010,000NAP3.121221,6300411,599633,229NBP.30261,0370122,074183,111NBP.30363,3860126,772190,1582003/04NAP3.12126,427049,07975,506NBP.30257,5200115,040172,560NBP.30355,3570110,714166,0712004/05NBP.30211,350022,70034,050NBP.30350,0000100,000150,000Total872,83417,8741,687,0882,577,796(a) Source for researcher costs for NAP3.116 and NAP3.121 is project contracts, which identify ownership of intellectual property as 50% MLA/NAP and 50% researchers for NAP3.116 and 35% MLA/NAP and 65% researchers for NAP3.121. Researcher in-kind costs for NBP.302 and NBP.303 are estimated as twice that of MLA funds (Rob Dixon, pers. comm., 2006) Table 2 provides a summary of the economic, environmental and social benefits from the investment in F. NIRS technology. Table 2: Summary of the Economic, Environmental and Social Benefits from the Investment EconomicEnvironmentalSocialGreater efficiency in provision of diet supplementsReduced likelihood of overgrazing through earlier destocking with potential implications for erosion, sediment export and biodiversity loss Educational and research toolIncreased ability to meet requirements of target marketsCost-effective weight gain in cattle Table 3 shows the results of the investment analysis at a discount rate of 5%. Table 3: Investment Criteria (5% discount rate) CriterionAll benefits from all investmentPresent value of benefits ($m)25.84Present value of costs ($m)3.29Net present value ($m)22.56Benefit-cost ratio7.9 to 1Internal Rate of Return (%)38.0 The investment was successful, with most project objectives being met. In addition, a producer survey indicates that there has been a high rate of satisfaction with the technology from those producers who have participated in the project. The technology is in the process of being commercialised. The quantitative analysis shows that the investment in F.NIRS has been economically successful, with an expected B/C Ratio of 7.9 to 1, at a 5% discount rate. These results are likely to be an underestimate of the potential benefits of the research, as only one of the potential benefits of the use of F.NIRS has been valued. A.4 Quantitative Genetics Research for the Beef Industry MLA and its predecessors have invested continuously in beef genetics research and genetic evaluation systems. Much of the investment concerned with improving genetic evaluation has occurred through the Animal Genetic and Breeding Unit (AGBU) located at the University of New England. BREEDPLAN and BreedObject constitute Australia s principal genetic evaluation system for beef cattle. BREEDPLAN assembles economic breeding values for a series of traits while BreedObject combines the individual BREEDPLAN traits into an economic $ index. A series of investments by MLA and its predecessors, in conjunction with the parent organisations of AGBU (University of New England and NSW Department of Primary Industries), has been aimed at improving BREEDPLAN and BreedObject. The total financial investment in two projects funded from 1998 to 2002 is shown in Table 1. Table 1: Resources Invested by Year for MLA and the Researchers 1997/98 to 2001/02 (nominal $) YearMLA funds AGBU (in- kind) (b)Total1997/98400,000400,000800,0001998/99360,000360,000720,0001999/00240,650240,650481,3002000/01128,484128,484256,9682001/02130,866130,866261,732Total1,260,0001,260,0002,520,000Source: MLA and Animal Genetics and Breeding Unit (AGBU) AGBU is funded by the University of New England and the NSW Department of Primary Industries. It is assumed that the contribution of AGBU was approximately equivalent to that of MLA (Hans Graser, pers.comm., July 2006). The enhanced versions of BREEDPLAN and BreedObject contributed to more efficient and effective industry servicing and faster rates of genetic progress in both southern and northern beef cattle herds. Table 2 shows the results of the investment analysis. Table 2: Investment for Investments (7% discount rate) Criterion All Benefits and Costs of Two Projects (2005/06 $ as at 2005/06)Present value of benefits ($m)16.74Present value of costs ($m)4.71Net present value ($m)12.03Benefit-cost ratio3.6 to 1Internal rate of return (%)19 This five year investment in quantitative genetics research for the beef industry was part of MLA s continuous support for maintaining and improving genetic evaluation systems for beef cattle. This support is predominantly through BREEDPLAN and BreedObject. The investment considered here has enhanced the versions of BREEDPLAN and BreedObject being used by AGBU and has contributed to more efficient and effective industry servicing and faster rates of genetic progress in both southern and northern beef cattle herds. A.5 EDGEnetwork? The development of the EDGEnetwork? program has involved over 300 MLA projects, with 47 projects funded in the six years to June 30 2006. MLA developed contracts in each state with providers to deliver EDGEnetwork? where the provider takes responsibility for all EDGEnetwork? activities and reporting in that state, and in most cases, these licensees have been exclusively delivering EDGEnetwork? workshops in each state. The total investment costs in EDGEnetwork? from 1998/99 to 2005/06 are shown in Table 1. Table 1: Resources Invested by Year for MLA in EDGEnetwork? Projects (nominal $) YearActual Net Expenditure (a)47 projects from MLA spreadsheet (c)1998/991,222,273NA (b)1999/002,532,682NA (b)2000/011,929,228565,530 (a)2001/02874,000505,1402002/03946,000465,2792003/041,116,000797,9492004/05896,000670,778Projected: 2005/061,000,000711,868TOTAL10,516,1833,716,544(a) Includes all costs: R&D and LPI operating costs net of income In the development of EDGEnetwork? workshops, there has been a number of partners, particularly state DPIs. In the development of some workshops, State DPIs have made significant in-kind contributions. Table 2 provides a summary of the benefits from the EDGEnetwork? investment. Table 2 Summary of the Economic, Environmental and Social Benefits from the Investment in EDGEnetwork? EconomicEnvironmentalSocialEnhanced productivity of meat and livestock production through improved management decision making Sustainable management of biodiversity, weeds, water and soil health, and overcoming soil erosion and salinity, Increased personal capacity to manage and cope so reducing stress and improving quality of life Increased net farm income of producers Enhanced effectiveness of participation in regional and industry affairs Increase in knowledge, skills and confidence to change and adapt to industry and personal needs. Table 3 shows the results of the investment analysis using a 5% discount rate. Table 3: Investment Criteria by Type of Benefit and Costs Included (5% discount rate) V on All Net Benefits and All Investment in EDGE Present value of benefits ($m)59.2Present value of costs ($m)14.7Net present value ($m)44.5Benefit-cost ratio4.0 to 1Internal rate of return (%)12.4 The total investment in EDGEnetwork? from 1997/98 to 2005/06 is estimated to produce a Net Present Value of $44 million and a benefit to cost ratio of 4.0 to 1. Appendix 2: Example of a Northern Beef PIRD Project Group - Australian Agricultural Company Title - Grazing Management by Controlling Waters Aim  Increase kg live wt turned off and to improve the environment. Contact  Suzie Kearins  Rangelands Officer  08 8964-4681  skearins@aaco.com.au The managers of AAco s 5 NT stations in the Barkly Tablelands decided that opportunity existed on all their properties to better utilise their available feed produced. A paddock of over 500 sq kms on  Rockhampton Downs was chosen as the trial site. The paddock was subdivided into two roughly equal paddocks and 3 new water points were added to one side giving a total of 5 troughs in the treatment side and 3 in the control paddock. The paddocks were stocked with equal rates of breeders and the control paddock cows were left to graze as usual. The treatment side cows were moved onto a new water point every 6 weeks. Initially the cattle did not move easily to new water points but with training and smart stock work the cattle moved readily. The results showed a potential to double beef production from the rotational grazing due to increased cow numbers which gave much greater utilisation of the total feed available. The sacrifice areas around water points were much smaller and there were more perennial grasses in the rotationally grazed paddock. There was also a significant increase in the amount of pasture present in the 2- 4 km region around the rotationally grazed water points. Staff could also muster cattle at lower costs due to their ability to have the cattle grazing near yards at the appropriate times. While it will need more years data to make definitive conclusions from the trial the rotationally grazed side [approx 50%] carried nearly the same number of cows [1100 breeders] as the whole paddock [1200 breeders-536sqklm] had prior to the trial. The rotationally grazed cows were also an average of 22 kgs heavier after a very tough year. The concept does involve establishing more water points which is costly but is a good investment as the pasture is already available for utilisation. NT DPIFM are still analysing all the vegetation data but observations by the group clearly indicate a positive outcome for the environment. Ensuring all stock are well watered may require longer troughs and increased tank capacity. The company will continue to monitor the trial paddock and use what they have learned to increase productivity on other stations. Appendix 3: Glossary of Economic Terms Benefit-cost analysis (BCA) - A conceptual framework for the economic evaluation of projects and programs in the public sector. It differs from a financial appraisal or evaluation in that it considers all gains (benefits) and losses (costs), regardless of to whom they accrue. Benefit-cost ratio (B/C Ratio) - The ratio of the present value of investment benefits to the present value of investment costs. Discounting - The process of relating the costs and benefits of an investment to a base year using a stated discount rate. Ex-post or historical analysis - Occurs after the research investment has been completed. It analyses the investment after completion with respect to benefit and cost outcomes attributable to the investment. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) - The discount rate at which an investment has a net present value of zero, i.e. where present value of benefits = present value of costs. Investment criteria - Measures of the economic worth of an investment such as Net Present Value, Benefit-Cost Ratio, and Internal Rate of Return. Net Present Value (NPV) - The discounted value of the benefits of an investment less the discounted value of the costs, i.e. present value of benefits - present value of costs. Present Value of Benefits (PVB) - The discounted value of benefits. Present Value of Costs (PVC) - The discounted value of costs.     Page  PAGE 2 of  NUMPAGES 52   Page  PAGE 52 of  NUMPAGES 52 partner logo Project code:B.COM.1001Prepared by:Peter ChudleighAgtrans ResearchDate published:25 August 2008 ISBN:[MLA to provide] PUBLISHED BY Meat & Livestock Australia Limited Locked Bag 991 NORTH SYDNEY NSW 2059 Final Report: Economic Evaluation of MLA Northern Beef RD&E Investment for 2000/2001 to 2007/08 Published by [INSERT CATEGORY] In submitting this report, you agree that Meat & Livestock Australia Limited may publish the report in whole or in part as it considers appropriate. This publication is published by Meat & Livestock Australia Limited ABN 39 081 678 364 (MLA). Care is taken to ensure the accuracy of information in the publication. Reproduction in whole or in part of this publication is prohibited without the prior written consent of MLA. finalreport partner logo  46>@BDrtvx???????        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H&J&T&`&7+ $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kdO$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣`&h&t&€&????? $$Ifa$gd? ????7+ $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kdO$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣????????? $$Ifa$gd? ???'7+ $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd黀$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣'' ' '''&'('0'???????? $$Ifa$gd? 0'2'<'H'7+ $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd鵔$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣H'P'\'h'p'???? $$Ifa$gd? p'r'|'?7+ $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd鯮$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣????????? $$Ifa$gd? ????7+ $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd骃$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣????????? $$Ifa$gd? ???(7+ $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd餞$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣(((((0(???? $$Ifa$gd? 0(2(<(H(7+ $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd鞺$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣H(P(\(h(p(???? $$Ifa$gd? p(r(|(?7+ $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd闢$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣????????? $$Ifa$gd? ????7+ $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd鏦$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣????????? $$Ifa$gd? ??)??,-7//// & Fgd? ?kd鋁$$IfT杔?謭p??wS #&/+A????  t????6?????4?4? la??奣,-.-??????? .??X/Z/~/???????????????? $$Ifa$gd? $a$gd?%$a$gd?% & Fgd?%$a$gd匛?$a$gd鯧??????{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd刟$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la???????{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd-b$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la???????{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd躡$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la?????0?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd媍$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??0 00 0?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd:d$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la?? 0"0,080?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd閐$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??80:0D0P0?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd榚$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??P0R0\0h0?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkdGf$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??h0j0t0€0?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd鰂$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??€0????{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la???????{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkdTh$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??????D1???3$3H3?wogwwg[[ $$Ifa$gd? $a$gd匛? & Fgd匛?$a$gd匛?$a$gd?%xkdi$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la?? H3J3T3Z3?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd瞚$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??Z3\3f3l3?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd[j$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??l3n3x3~3?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd k$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??~3€3???{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd筴$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la???????{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkdhl$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la???????{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkdm$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la???????{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd苖$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la???????{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkdun$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la???????{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd$o$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la?????4?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd觨$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??4444?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd俻$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??44V4X4`5d5??? 6?zzrj^^ $$Ifa$gd? $a$gd%$a$gd%gd%$a$gd匛?xkd1q$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la?? 6 666?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd鄎$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??66(6.6?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd塺$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??.606:6@6?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd8s$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??@6B6L6R6?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd鐂$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??R6T6^6d6?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkd杢$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??d6f6p6v6?{o $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? xkdEu$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la??v6x6?????X8Z8~8?wogwww[ $$Ifa$gd? $a$gd匛? & Fgd匛?$a$gd匛?$a$gd%xkd魎$$If杔??p*?? t???6?????4?4? la?? ~8????9929@9??wk???? $$Ifa$gd? |kd$$IfT杔??TM ??^ t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? @9B9L9T9\9d9J>222 $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kdPw$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣d9l9n9x9€9??>2?? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd?x$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ????????>2? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd.y$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ?????????>2 $$Ifa$gd? ?kdz$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ??????????>?kd {$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ??: :::????? $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ::(:0:8:@:J>222 $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd鹻$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣@:H:J:T:\:d:?>2?? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd陓$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? d:l:t:v:€:???>2? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd賫$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ?????????>2 $$Ifa$gd? ?kd葉$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ???????????>6$a$gd匛??kd?$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ?????<$<&<(<:<T<??????[???|kd$$IfT杔??TM ??^ t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? $a$gd匛?$a$gd?< T<l<z<|<???>2 $$Ifa$gd? ?kdS?$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ??????????>?kdB?$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ??????????? $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ??????J>222 $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd7?$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣??= ===?>2?? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd,?$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ="=*=,=6=>=??>2? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd!?$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? >=F=N=V=X=b=???>2 $$Ifa$gd? ?kd?$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? b=j=r=z=??????>?kd ?$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ??????????? $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ??????J>222 $$Ifa$gd? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd?$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣???????>2?? $$Ifa$gd? ?kd鯃$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? ??>> >>??>66$a$gd匛??kd陦$$IfT杔?謗TM ?h ??c_YC t???6?????4?4? la??奣 $$Ifa$gd? >|>€>????X?鐰闍ZD^D瓺癉糄銬麯"E:E^E圗???????????????????? $$Ifa$gd? $a$gd?0$a$gdj~? & Fgd%$a$gd9w?$a$gd)?$a$gdX$a$gd?圗奅擡碋8,,, $$Ifa$gd? ?kd霟$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣碋腅訣銭鍱???,?kd褷$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣 $$Ifa$gd? 鍱餎FFF.F>F?????? $$Ifa$gd? >F@FJFZFjF8,,, $$Ifa$gd? ?kd贰$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣jFzF奆欶淔???,?kd潰$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣 $$Ifa$gd? 淔禙艶諪鍲鯢?????? $$Ifa$gd? 鯢鳩GG"G8,,, $$Ifa$gd? ?kd儯$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣"G2GBGRGTG???,?kdi?$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣 $$Ifa$gd? TG^GnG~G嶨濭瓽?????? $$Ifa$gd? 瓽癎篏蔊贕8,,, $$Ifa$gd? ?kdO?$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣贕闓鶪 H H???,?kd5?$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣 $$Ifa$gd?  HH&H4HDHTHdH?????? $$Ifa$gd? dHfHpH€H嶩8,,, $$Ifa$gd? ?kd?$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣嶩濰瓾綡繦???,?kd?$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣 $$Ifa$gd? 繦蔋贖鐷鳫II?????? $$Ifa$gd? IINIPIRI80(($a$gd?M^$a$gd?0?kd绋$$IfT杔?謭?8?P?x !??x??? t????????4?4? la?奣RI翴艻JJPJ凮哋歈淨鶴黁R]d]cZNNN $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[??kd仫$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?d]f]俔竇轢cZNNN $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[??kd$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?轢郵鷀^0^V^cZNNN $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[??kdz?$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?V^X^r^擽╚蝆cZNNN $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[??kdK?$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?蝆衈黕__cZNNN $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[??kd?$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?__,_T_j_恄cZNNN $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[??kd眢$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?恄抇躝``@`cZNNN $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[??kd爵$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?@`B`n`朻猔衊cZNNN $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[??kd忰$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?衊襚鴃 a4aZacZNNN $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[??kd`?$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?Za\a刟cW $$Ifa$gdB[??kd1?$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?刟哸燼竌蘟騛????? $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[?ckd?$$If杔???,"?????????4?4? la?騛鬭b(bhcZNNN $$Ifa$gdB[? $IfgdB[??kd?$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?>h@hBh詉tj耺 o蝢c[SSHHH $ & Fa$gdj~?$a$gdj~?$a$gd* g?kd?$$If杔?謀?$ ?,"??L(????????4?4? la?蝢0r鄓鈜$yJy測膟魕鰕謟{({N{t{v{P|v|}N}P}?????????????????????? $ & F a$gd? $ & Fa$gd? $ & Fa$gd? $a$gdj~? $ & Fa$gdcy?L???€z€蕗??悆拑L?(?????n?p?螁獓????????????????????? & Fgd蒞G & Fgd??gd3/V$a$gdcy? $ & Fa$gd? $a$gdj~? $ & F a$gd? 獓*?寛?P?唹 ?b?d??唻驄:?聦d?聧p?^?L?姁螑詰謶H?J?袛覕?????????????????????????? $ & Fa$gd? $a$gdcy? $ & Fa$gd? 覕鋿h?r?簽鸂F?簪àZ?敡湩灖?"F"N"V"?????? $$Ifa$gdO?V"X"?# $Ifgd???kd?$$IfT杔4?譃恸?u ?]?E?sttttt????????4?4? la?N鹒4奣????????????? $$Ifa$gdO???v##$ & F?^?a$gd鈁/?kd?$$IfT杔4?譃恸?u ?]?E?sttttt????????4?4? la?N鹒4奣v#??????? $$????????? $Ifgd??$a$gd鈁/$a$gd鈁/ $$\$# $Ifgd???kd?$$IfT杔4?譃恸?u ?]?E?sttttt????????4?4? la?N鹒4奣\$b$h$p$x$€$??????? $$Ifa$gdO????# $IfgdO??kd?$$IfT杔4?譃恸?u ?]?E?sttttt????????4?4? la?N鹒4奣????????????? $$Ifa$gdO???%# $Ifgd???kdi$$IfT杔4?譃恸?u ?]?E?sttttt????????4?4? la?N鹒4奣%%"%(%0%8%@%?????? $$Ifa$gdO?@%B%h%# $Ifgd???kdN$$IfT杔4?譃恸?u ?]?E?sttttt????????4?4? la?N鹒4奣h%p%x%€%????????? $$Ifa$gdO????# $Ifgd???kd3$$IfT杔4?譃恸?u ?]?E?sttttt????????4?4? la?N鹒4奣????& &&?????? $$Ifa$gdO?&&&#$a$gd鈁/?kd$$IfT杔4?譃恸?u ?]?E?sttttt????????4?4? la?N鹒4奣&H&??' '$'&'('*'T'??+j+l+??????????????????? $$Ifa$gd?? $Ifgd??$a$gd鈁/$a$gd鈁/????????,?ymmmmmm $$Ifa$gd?? $Ifgd??}kd,*$$IfT杔4??? `??????????4?4? la?f4奣,,@,H,P,X,\SG;G $$Ifa$gdWGs $$Ifa$gd?? $Ifgd???kd?$$IfT杔4?謀? ? ???????????4?4? la?f4奣X,Z,????\SG;G $$Ifa$gdWGs $$Ifa$gd?? $Ifgd???kd?$$IfT杔4?謀? ????????????4?4? la?f4奣??????\SG;G $$Ifa$gdWGs $$Ifa$gd?? $Ifgd???kd,$$IfT杔4?謀? ????????????4?4? la?f4奣??--"-*-\SG;G $$Ifa$gdWGs $$Ifa$gd?? $Ifgd???kdL-$$IfT杔4?謀? ????????????4?4? la?f4奣*-,-.-???11\WOOGGO$a$gd鈁/$a$gd鈁/gd鈁/?kd.$$IfT杔4?謀? ????????????4?4? la?f4奣1*121H1P1R1??????B???kd?$$IfT杔4?敠謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣 $$Ifa$gd?? $$Ifa$gd???????????D8?? $$Ifa$gd???kd?$$IfT杔4?謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣 $$Ifa$gd?? $$Ifa$gdWGs???"2(20282?PD?8? $$Ifa$gdWGs $$Ifa$gd???kd?$$IfT杔4?謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣 $$Ifa$gd??82:2`2h2p2x2\PD8D $$Ifa$gdWGs $$Ifa$gd?? $$Ifa$gd???kd{1$$IfT杔4?謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣x2z2????\PDDD $$Ifa$gd?? $$Ifa$gd???kdV2$$IfT杔4?謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣???44? 5 5\TTTLLT$a$gd鈁/$a$gd鈁/?kd13$$IfT杔4?謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣 5"5f5n5|5????????B??kd 4$$IfT杔4?攜謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣 $$Ifa$gd?? $$Ifa$gd???????"6*6???D8? $$Ifa$gd???kd?$$IfT杔4?謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣 $$Ifa$gdWGs $$Ifa$gd??*626:6<6j6v6???D8?? $$Ifa$gd???kd?$$IfT杔4?謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣 $$Ifa$gd?? $$Ifa$gdWGs????????PD?8? $$Ifa$gdWGs $$Ifa$gd???kd?$$IfT杔4?謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣 $$Ifa$gd????777&7\PD8D $$Ifa$gdWGs $$Ifa$gd?? $$Ifa$gd???kd|7$$IfT杔4?謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣&7(7*7,7.7x7??\TLLG??$a$gdj~?gd??$a$gdGS?$a$gd鈁/?kdW8$$IfT杔4?謀{??)S ???????????4?4? la?琨f4奣????>>F@H@BB嶦怑擥朑楪淕綠HzH豀0I腎NJ豃贘XL?????????????????????????gdlE $a$gd昑?$a$gd?? & Fgd??gd??gd镮?XLZL\LrLMMvMxM$N&NOO鶲麿郠釷芐萐糢綰╓猈哬圷鶽黌蔦蘚???????????????????????????$a$gd[z & FgdlE gd??蘚猑琟``b`LaNa鑒阞XdZd~e€e攆杅癵瞘 i i坕奿鄇鈐択攌^l`l????????????????????????????$a$gd[z`lBmDm蕁蘮ppq q衠襮HsJstt妘寀巙抲v坸妜詘鑨y???????????????????????? & Fgd? $a$gd  & Fgd gd??$a$gd[zgd?y2y測緔纘瞶磟T{|||"|*|2|:|?????????????? $$Ifa$gd? $Ifgd裷?$a$gd gd裷?gd  & Fgd? :|<|P|\|f|r|||NE9999 $$Ifa$gd? $Ifgd裷??kd29$$If杔?謗?\ ?W ??STTT t???6?????4?4? la?||~|皘紎苵襹軀NE9999 $$Ifa$gd? $Ifgd裷??kd:$$If杔?謗?\ ?W ??STTT t???6?????4?4? la?軀迀鰘} }} }NE9999 $$Ifa$gd? $Ifgd裷??kd?$$If杔?謗?\ ?W ??STTT t???6?????4?4? la? }"}b}n}x}剗寎NE9999 $$Ifa$gd? $Ifgd裷??kd?$$If杔?謗?\ ?W ??STTT t???6?????4?4? la?寎巬瑌秨纝蕔襺NE9999 $$Ifa$gd? $Ifgd裷??kdn<$$If杔?謗?\ ?W ??STTT t???6?????4?4? la?襺詝謢貆趠r~(NIDD<7gd鐃x & Fgd鐃xgd?Lgd裷??kd==$$If杔?謗?\ ?W ??STTT t???6?????4?4? la?(*$€&€0€D€`€l€t€€€唨拃??????????? $$Ifa$gd?:$a$gd鐃xgd鐃x 拃攢?kd >$$IfT杔?执??N??O??;#eUVVUVV@?????????4?4? la?奣攢秬竴葊謤趢鑰鰛??"??????????? $$Ifa$gd?:gkd?$$IfT杔???;#??????????4?4? la?奣 $Ifgd?: "?$??kd?$$IfT杔?执??N??O??;#eUVVUVV@?????????4?4? la?奣$?4?B?F?T?b?p?~?巵???????? $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:巵悂?kd罖$$IfT杔?执??N??O??;#eUVVUVV@?????????4?4? la?奣悂爜畞瞾纴蝸軄陙鷣???????? $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:鷣鼇?kd褹$$IfT杔?执??N??O??;#eUVVUVV@?????????4?4? la?奣鼇 ???,?8?D?P?^????????? $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:^?`??kd鉈$$IfT杔?执??N??O??;#eUVVUVV@?????????4?4? la?奣`?z?|?寕殏磦競紓纻蝹?????????? $$Ifa$gd?:gkd鬋$$IfT杔???;#??????????4?4? la?奣 $Ifgd?: 蝹袀?kd嘍$$IfT杔?执??N??O??;#eUVVUVV@?????????4?4? la?奣袀鄠顐鼈 ????(????????? $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:(?*??kd楨$$IfT杔?执??N??O??;#eUVVUVV@?????????4?4? la?奣*?:?H?L?\?`?d?h?x????????? $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:x?z??kd〧$$IfT杔?执??N??O??;#eUVVUVV@?????????4?4? la?奣z?妰槂渻獌畠矁秲膬???????? $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:膬苾?kd篏$$IfT杔?执??N??O??;#eUVVUVV@?????????4?4? la?奣苾覂鈨饍???*?>????????? $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:>?@??kd薍$$IfT杔?执??N??O??;#eUVVUVV@?????????4?4? la?奣@?B??皡矃膮鄥顓饏????????O?kd躀$$IfT杔?諪? ?,"??? t???6?????4?4? la?奣 $$Ifa$gd? $a$gd鐃xgd鐃x$a$gd鐃x 饏N?P???z?|?~????g????kd僇$$IfT杔?諪? ?,"??? t???6?????4?4? la?奣 $Ifgd?:~?€?剣 ?"?緢缊覉迗靾pkkkccWWW $$Ifa$gd?:$a$gd鐃xgd鐃x?kd*K$$IfT杔?諪? ?,"??? t???6?????4?4? la?奣 靾顖F?倝悏riii $Ifgd?:?kd袺$$IfT杔?諪?\ ?#??0 ?????????4?4? la?奣悏拤缐袎鰤riii $Ifgd?:?kd怢$$IfT杔?諪?\ ?#??0 ?????????4?4? la?奣鰤鴫,?4?B?riii $Ifgd?:?kdOM$$IfT杔?諪?\ ?#??0 ?????????4?4? la?奣B?D?v?唺瑠riii $Ifgd?:?kdN$$IfT杔?諪?\ ?#??0 ?????????4?4? la?奣瑠畩?*?8?riii $Ifgd?:?kd蚇$$IfT杔?諪?\ ?#??0 ?????????4?4? la?奣8?:??@?V?寣rmee]mTH $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:$a$gd鐃x$a$gd鐃xgd鐃x?kd孫$$IfT杔?諪?\ ?#??0 ?????????4?4? la?奣寣帉虒貙?ym $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:}kdKP$$IfT杔4??佐3?\ ?????????4?4? la?C鮢4奣貙趯???ym $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:}kd鶳$$IfT杔4??佐3?\ ?????????4?4? la?C鮢4奣??L?X??ym $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:}kd㏎$$IfT杔4??佐3?\ ?????????4?4? la?C鮢4奣X?Z?€?攳?ym $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:}kdXR$$IfT杔4??佐3?\ ?????????4?4? la?C鮢4奣攳枍螎貚?ym $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:}kdS$$IfT杔4??佐3?\ ?????????4?4? la?C鮢4奣貚趰迧鋶R?T?話??魴鰴x?z??}}u}mu}uu}} & Fgd竜i$a$gd鐃xgd鐃x}kd禨$$IfT杔4??佐3?\ ?????????4?4? la?C鮢4奣 z?"?:???ym $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:}kdU[$$IfT杔4???^ ??8????????4?4? la?f4奣>?@?f?|??ym $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:}kd\$$IfT杔4???^ ??8????????4?4? la?f4奣|?~?鼎捆?ym $$Ifa$gd?: $Ifgd?:}kd砛$$IfT杔4???^ ??8????????4?4? la?f4奣捆娄摩í:?き尦幊?}u}}me]]$a$gd梶?$a$gd竜i & FgdXb,$a$gd鐃xgd鐃x}kdb]$$IfT杔4???^ ??8????????4?4? la?f4奣 幊槼ǔ汲璩?&??????? $$Ifa$gd? &?(??N?7.. $Ifgd?:?kdr`$$IfT杔?謭?X ???i"?????? t???6?????4?4? la?奣N?\?`?n?~????? $$Ifa$gd? 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